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Thursday, December 18, 2003
I'm not usually confused by math, but The New Republic has managed to befuddle me.
Their &c. blog suggests that Dean as a third party (maybe 4th after Green) could get the entire 40% anti-war vote, and that Bush and the Dem would split the other 60% (pro-war). Other blogs have said this is silly, and I agree, but no one I've seen has looked at the pure math. Assuming the country is 50:50 Rep:Dem right now, &c.'s result rests on some heavy assumptions.
Dean's 40%: Only anti-war, and close to 100% Dem, leaving only 10% of the country that are Dems (20% of the total Dems).
Dem's 30%: I'll grant the remaining 10% that are Dems, but this would also require 20% of the country that are Reps (40% of the total Reps) to cross party lines. Given that Reps are Reps, I don't think that 40% of them would suddenly vote for a Dem, no matter what his policy stances are.
Bush's 30%: He could get this if he took the year off.
What about Nader? If he gets 5% of the Dems (mostly taking from Dean), that would still leave Dean with TNR's theoretical win (35% to 30/30/5).
I think more sound (conservative?) math would have the following result:
50% Bush - this would translate into nearly 95% of the electoral votes
Posted by Gel 2:52 PM Post a Comment
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